Article
Field notes from the operating side
"Prices remained fairly stable in the domestics market and only slightly less stable in the international market for LPG in the immediately preceding week"
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- International prices of LPG initially plummeted to close to 0.195 $ per Kg and then started to rise towards the end of the week under review. That notwithstanding, prices remained largely stable.
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- We find only a slight rise in depot price in response to the rise in prices internationally which only began to be evident towards the end of the week.
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- Prices per kg of LPG at the depots in Nigeria still remain well over double the prices at the international market.
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- Prices continue to differ acrosscities and regions of the country. However, price levels remain stable across the cities in the week under review.
Regional disparity in the prices of LPG across the country has been a regular feature of the Nigerian LPG market. Though the South-south geopolitical zone hosts the great majority of depots in the country due to its proximity to the ocean, prices have been highest in the region.
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- The stability in the exchange value of the naira to the US. $ was reflected in the stability of LPG prices domestically throughout the week (Figure D).
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- The gross foreign reserves of Nigeria is continuing a downward trend in nearly the same fashion as we find in the previous week.
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- As noted last week, the composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the month March 2020 stood at 49.2 points, indicating contraction in Non-manufacturing PMI for the first time after thirty-four consecutive months of expansion.
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- For the gas market, managers report declining inventory, new orders and employment.
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- New data on the inflation level for March 2020 is shoing a 23 months high in Month-on-Month inflation level.
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- The price Of oil in the international market witnessed a significant drop in the middle of the week followed by an immediate recovery (Figure E)
- Price of LPG in the domestic market may rise in response to recent drop in international prices.
- We expect a continuous stabilization of the exchange value of the naira as market players adjuster to the new rates.
- We do not expect any significant impact on domestic consumption of the increase in month-on-month inflation level.
Regional disparity in the prices of LPG across the country has been a regular feature of the Nigerian LPG market. Though the South-south geopolitical zone hosts the great majority of depots in the country due to its proximity to the ocean, prices have been highest in the region.