Field notes from the operating side

"Prices have shown a marked drop in the international. However, prices in the domestic markets for LPG is yet to reflect this new trend"

    • International(Mont Belvieu) prices of LPG maintained a generally consistent fall all through the week under review. This trend is related to the growing oversupply situation in the market as storage capacities approach their peak.
    • Prices of LPG at the depot level rose slightly within the week under review. However, the drop in the international price for LPG (Mont Belvieu) is yet to be reflected in depot prices in the domestic market.
    • Prices per kg of LPG at the depots in Nigeria are less than double the prices at the international market. Prices per kg of LPG also increased slightly within the week. However, the rise in prices for LPG at the depot level was higher
    • Regional disparities in the retail prices of LPG within the country continue to persist.

Regional disparity in the prices of LPG across the country has been a regular feature of the Nigerian LPG market. Though the South-south geopolitical zone hosts the great majority of depots in the country due to its proximity to the ocean, prices have been highest in the region.

    • The exchange value of the naira to the US. $ was remained stable at N361 to US.$1 throughout the week (Figure D).
    • The foreign reserve is continuing to experience a drop in just like the previous week. A drop of about US$64.8 was recorded in the week under review
    • The slight drop witnessed in the size of Nigeria's foreign reserve has implications for the value of the naira in the days and weeks to come and in turn the landing cost of LPG to Nigeria.
    • For the gas market, purchasing managers report declining inventory, new orders and employment for the month of May 2020.
    • The recently announced 1.8% growth rate for Q1 2020 will boost, at least, temporarily, the confidence of investors and market players of the viability of the Nigerian market.
    • Generally optimistic outlook on the ease of the COVID-19 induced lockdown in major commercial cities will improve overall aggregate demand, especially for commercial LPG end-users.
    • Prices of crude oil in the international market in the week under review showed a marked upward trend, after an initial rise, signalling the gradual return to normalcy in the international market for oil & gas (Figure E).

    The continuous oversupply situation in the international market for Natural gas will likely lead to a continuous drop in prices in the weeks to come.