Field notes from the operating side

"Prices are beginning to rise in the international market and has remained stable in the domestic market for LPG in the immediately preceding week "

  • The week under review shows a consistent drop in the International prices (Mont Belvieu) of LPG, more than would be expected. However, the price of LPG still varies significantly across countries of the world.
  • Week-on-week differences in the price of LPG at the depot level have not changed much in view of the fall in prices recently internationally.
  • The difference between prices per kg of LPG at the depots in Nigeria and prices at the international market are becoming narrower compared to several weeks ago.
  • Regional disparities in the retail prices of LPG within the country continue to persist.

 

Regional disparity in the prices of LPG across the country has been a regular feature of the Nigerian LPG market. Though the South-south geopolitical zone hosts the great majority of depots in the country due to its proximity to the ocean, prices have been highest in the region.

    • The exchange value of the naira to the US. $ remained stable throughout the week (Figure D).
    • Like the previous week, the foreign reserve is experiencing a continued drop in the week under review. The fall that began about a month ago.
    • The fall in the past month is yet to be significantly reflected in the exchange value of the naira to the dollar. the days and weeks to come and in turn the landing cost of LPG to Nigeria.
    • The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply sub-sector in the month of June 2020 stood at 42.7 points, indicating contraction even though this index is an improvement from the 17.8 points recorded for the previous month, May.
    • The PMI signals the gradual picking up of the economy, howbeit, a few more month might be required to start to experience an actual expansion.
    • The recently announced 1.8% growth rate for Q1 2020 will boost, at least, temporarily, the confidence of investors and market players of the viability of the Nigerian market.
    • Fluctuations in the prices of crude oil in the international market were not very severe in the week under review. (Figure E)

    Demand may slightly drop as the lockdown progressively eases movement and allows people to spend more time at outside of the home. While the drop in household consumption might be offset by consumption by business entities, this may not be a perfect off-set.