How we gather our data
Saudi Arabian crude production will remain heavily constrained over the coming quarters under the constraints of the OPEC+ production cut agreement. That said, the deal is proving successful in rebalancing the global oil market, drawing down inventories and raising prices. This will help support growth in oil export revenues. The outlook for gas production remains bullish, with the kingdom progressing a number of projects, including a major expansion at Hawiyah and the Jafurah unconventional development. Downstream capacity is also expanding, with Jazan entering commercial production, boosting both domestic supply and exports. Oil demand growth, though, remains weak, dragged down by softer-than-expected economic activity and the aftershock of fuel subsidy reforms. Gas demand continues to grow strongly but is capped by domestic supply constraints and the lack of import alternatives.
Key views: In the short term, the prospects for production have weakened.
In the 2020s, Saudi Arabian oil production will trend higher.
Domestic production will likely remain insufficient to meet unrestrained demand.